新制度经济学视角下中国式分权、农业经济增长与城乡收入差距动态分析

Dynamic Analysis on China's Decentralization, Agricultural Growth and Rural-urban Income Gap on the Perspective of New Institutional Economics

农业经济增长、财政分权和城乡收入差距三个变量之间呈现出较为明显的短期调整和长期均衡发展态势。文章以新制度经济学理论为依据,将过去几十年的统计数据整理出来,分析了农业经济增长、城乡收入差距以及中国式分权这三者的统一性,将三个变量之间发生变化的动态模型进行制作;最后在回归到仿真模型上,对仿真模型进行预测。并提出两方面的对策建议:一是将现代化的新型生产要素引入传统农业;二是大力提高农业生产率。

Agricultural economic growth, fiscal decentralization and urban-rural income gap, among the three variables present a more obvious short-term adjustment and long-term equilibrium development situation. This paper based on new institutional economics, sum up the statistic data, analyzed the relations of agricultural economic growth, fiscal decentralization and urban-rural income gap, and then established a dynamic model of these three variables; finally, on the return to the simulation model and to forecast. Suggestions are proposed： to introduce modem productive factors into traditional agriculture, to promote the agriculture productive rate greatly.