民进党两岸政策转型动力机制探讨:困境与发展

Analysis of the Dynamic Mechanism of DPP's Cross-Strait Policy Transition in Taiwan:Dilemma and Development

民进党两岸政策主张在核心价值论述部分,包括坚持台湾前途决议文作为指道纲领,强调台湾就是"中华民国"、"中华民国"就是台湾;维持两岸现状,变更主权独立现状须公民投票决定;建立"台湾共识"否定"九二共识";不急于处理《公投"台独党纲"》与《"正常国家"决议文》。民进党两岸政策转型动力仍欠缺诱因机制,致其政策难以进行实质改变,其因主要是坚持党传统基本核心政治价值,借以巩固基本教义派支持;认为台湾人认同指数增加,两岸"统独"指数下降;国民党执政满意度偏低,难以重新获取民众支持;民共关系不如国共关系,欠缺政治互信基础;预估两岸因素与美国因素在2016年台湾大选影响程度将不如2012年。

The core value of DPP＇s cross-Strait policy discourse, is to insist ＂Resolution on Taiwan＇s Future＂ as a guiding principle to stress that ＂Taiwan is the ROC, the ROC is Taiwan＂, to maintain the status quo of cross-Strait, to change the status quo of sovereign independence decided by referendum, the establishment of ＂Taiwan Consensus＂ against ＂1992 Consensus＂, in no hurry to deal with＂ Referendum on Taiwan Independence Party Platform＂ and ＂NormalCountry Resolution＂. The transition of DPP＇s cross-Strait policy is still lack of the powerful incentive mechanisms, causing substantial changes of the policy is difficult to carry out, mainly due to uphold the party＇s traditional core fundamental political values, to consolidate the support of fundamentalists, the Taiwan Residents identity exponential increase and cross-Strait unification and independence Index drop, KMT＇ s governance crisis is difficult to regain public support, relationship between KMT and CCP is better than the DPP and CCP, lack of political mutual trust, evaluate the impact factors of cross-strait and US estimated on Taiwan presidential election in 2016 will be less than in 2012.