关于“反服贸运动”对两岸关系影响的思考

Thinking of the Influence of the "Anti-Service Trade Agreement Movement" on the Cross-Strait Relations

"反服贸运动"是两岸经贸关系正常化和制度化进程中的重大波折,它给两岸和平发展趋势蒙上了阴影。从"反服贸运动"所折射的台湾社会问题观察,它对两岸关系和平发展提出了以下挑战:一是民进党转型困难将增添两岸关系的不确定性;二是国民党革新不力将提升两岸构建正常三角党际关系的紧迫性;三是岛内出现经贸政治版图将挑战两岸经贸关系制度化的稳定性;四是台湾新世代的"反中"情结将加剧大陆"争取台湾人民"工作的艰巨性。

The Anti- Service Trade Agreement Movement is the big setback during the process of normalization and institutionalization of the economy and trade relations of the cross- Strait, it brings shadows on the peaceful development trend of the cross-Strait. Observing from the Taiwan Residents social issues that are reflected by the Anti Suit Trade Movement, it brings the following challenges on the peaceful development of the cross-Strait relations： firstly, the difficulty of Democratic Progressive Party＇ s transition will increase the uncertainty of the cross- Strait relations; Secondly, the lack of renovation of Chinese Nationalist Party will increase the urgency of the cross-Strait building the normal triangular relationship between parties; thirdly, the emerging economy and trade territory in Taiwan will challenge the stability of the institution- alization of the economy and trade relations of the cross-Strait; Fourthly, the ＇ anti-China＇ complex of Taiwan Residents new generation will intensify the difficulty of mainland ＇ win over pepole in Taiwan＇.