混合非机动车交通流超车次率影响因素模型

Modeling influencing factors of vehicle passing rate in mixed bicycle traffic flow

为了明确城市共享非机动车道内超车事件数的统计特性,建立车辆超车次率影响因素模型,分析对超车次率产生影响的混合非机动车交通流特性参数与骑行人特征参数.结合杭州市的实测数据,采用统计回归分析方法分别建立全体车辆超车次率及电动自行车超车次率与主要影响因素之间的逐步回归模型,并对不同路段宽度条件下的回归模型进行对比分析.结果表明:总超车次率主要与电动自行车平均车速以及传统自行车的15%位车速成线性回归关系;电动自行车超车次率与电动自行车平均车速以及车辆速度方差成线性回归关系.该结果为制定电动自行车安全行驶车速提供理论依据.

Models on the influencing factors for vehicle passing rate were established in order to make clear the statistical characteristics of the number of overtaking events in the separated bicycle path.The characteristic parameters of mixed bicycle traffic flow and the aspacts of bicycle riders were analyzed,which had an impact on the vehicle passing rate.Based on the field data in Hangzhou,the models were established to determine the relationships between the main influencing factors and the total passing rate,or the electricbicycle passing rate,respectively,by using the stepwise regression method.Comparative analysis of all models was taken according to the corresponding lane width.The results show that there is linear regression relation between the total passing rate and the both factors including the average speed of electric-bicycles and the 15 th percentile speed of traditional bicycles.There is also linear regression relation between the electric-bicycle passing rate and both the factors including the average speed of electric-bicycles and the vehicle speed variances.These conclusions can provide theoretical basis for the determination of the safety operation speed of electric-bicycles.