中国小麦生产率的变动分析

Analysis on the wheat productivity in China

小麦是我国重要的粮食作物,近年来一直面临着较大的增产压力。为研究我国小麦生产能力,首先通过收集整理小麦生产相关数据,发现近年来小麦土地生产率和劳动生产率呈逐年上升趋势,而资本产出率呈下降趋势。而通过对影响小麦生产率的各因素进行计量分析发现,化肥投入、土地投入、机械作业投入对小麦生产率的提高具有正影响,其中化肥投入的作用最大,而土地投入的作用最小。劳动力、种子和农药的投入对小麦生产率的提高具有负影响。最后,结合研究结论,提出稳定播种面积、引导农村劳动力转移、推进适度规模经营、完善社会化服务和加强生产技术推广的对策建议。

Wheat is a kind of important food crop in China and has been faced with great pressure in increasing its production in recent years. In order to study wheat’s productivity,firstly,through gathering and sorting data,the results show that wheat’s land productivity and labor productivity in China have the trend to rise,and the capital productivity has the trend to decrease. Then,by further analysis on various factors that affect the wheat production efficiency,the results show that the input of fertilizer,land and machinery have a positive effect to improve wheat production. The input of fertilizer has the greatest influence and the land input effects had the least influence. The input of labor,seed and pesticide has a negative effect on the improvement of wheat productivity. In the end,according to the research conclusions,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward including stabilizing the sown area,guiding the flow of rural labor force,promoting the appropriate scale management,improving the social service and strengthening the production technology promotion.