中国最低工资标准对就业的影响研究

An Empirical Research on the Impact of China's Minimum Wage on the Employment

为了准确分析中国最低工资与就业之间的关系,选用了中国27个省市1997-2010年的数据样本,分别采用静态面板和动态面板的计量分析方法研究了中国最低工资标准对就业的影响。在对全国的数据进行分析后,没有能够如预期的那样得到最低工资与就业之间一个显著的关系。进一步深入分析后发现,地区间的差异有可能是导致这一结论出现偏差的重要原因,与其他国家不同的是,中国同一地区之间的各省之间存在较强的趋同性,而不同地区之间的省份存在较大的差异。然后根据经济特征的相似性,对中国东部、中部和西部三个地区的最低工资与就业之间的关系进行了深入剖析,并且分别采用GMM的方法进行了估计,最后得出最低工资对就业的影响真相及结论,并据此给出了提高最低工资标准的相关建议。

In order to accurately analyze the relationship between minimum wage and employment in China,this paper selected data samples of 27 provinces in China from 1997 to 2010,which were used in a static panel and dynamic panel econometric analysis method,and studied the impact of the minimum wage on employment.The analysis of the national data failed to find any expected significant relationship between minimum wages and employment.In-depth analysis found that the differences between the regions may lead to this conclusion deviation unlike in any other countries.There is a strong convergence between the provinces in China in the same area.And between provinces in different regions,there is also a big difference.On the basis of further analysis of the data according to the similarity of the economic characteristics,China was divided into three regions：eastern,central and western,step-depth analysis were conducted respetively of the relationship between minimum wages and employment,and then GMM method was used in estimation.The impact of minimum wage on employment was obtained with some suggestions given.