中国区域城镇化综合效率测度及其动力因子分析

Comprehensive Efficiency Level and Driving Factors of China's Regional Urbanization

基于构建的城镇化综合效率评价指标体系,采用基于F？re-Primont指数的DEA评价模型,对中国1999~2012年31个省份的城镇化综合效率进行动态的测算和分解,以克服传统DEA模型无法进行趋势分析、无法区分决策单元之间优劣性的缺陷。同时,对影响城镇化效率的动力因子进行理论分析,运用面板数据固定效应模型对影响城镇化效率的主要动力因子进行分析和识别。研究结果表明：全国平均水平达到了1999年北京的1.292倍,大部分地区属于有效增长型地区。中国各地区城镇化综合效率的总体水平较高的原因是混合效率和残余规模效率的高增长。从发展趋势来看,中国东、中、西部和东北地区的城镇化效率呈现出了明显的分化。城镇化效率动力因子分析的结果表明,内源力是最主要的驱动力,后面依次是市场力和外向力,而行政力则起到了相反的作用。基于研究结果,提出城镇化效率的提高需要推进＂人口-土地-经济＂城镇化的协调发展。

As an important indicator of the development level of the urbanization, urbanization efficiency has become an inevitable choice for the healthy and sustainable urban development. The key point is how to evaluate the efficiency of urbanization effectively and objectively. In this article, we first establish an evaluation index system of the urbanization comprehensive efficiency, and then we apply the data of the 31 provinces in China in 1999-2012 to measure and decompose, based on the DEA evaluation model with F？re-Primont index.This model can overcome the drawbacks of the traditional DEA model that cannot make trend analysis and distinguish the superiority-inferiority between decision units. Moreover, the driving factors of urbanization comprehensive efficiency are analyzed theoretically in this article, and the main driving factors of urbanization efficiency are analyzed and distinguished by using the Panel Data fixed effects model. The results indicate that the level of national average in 2012 was as much as 1.292 times to that of Beijing in 1999, and most areas were effective growth-oriented areas. High overall level of urbanization comprehensive efficiency in the most regions of China is the result of high growth of the mixing efficiency of and residual scale efficiency. The urbanization efficiency in Eastern, Central, Western and Northeastern regions of China shows a clear differentiation in views of the development trends. The results of the driving factor analysis show that the intrinsic force is the most powerful driving force, followed by market and exterior force, while the administrative force plays the opposite role. Therefore,this article presents that the advancement of urbanization efficiency needs to promote the harmonious development among population urbanization, land urbanization and economy urbanization.