气候变化对中国古代财政平衡的影响

Climatic Impacts on the Fiscal Balance in Ancient China

以当代历史和经济史著作为资料,建立与历朝财政盈亏状态相关词汇的语义分级标准,重建了中国自秦朝至清末(220 BC^1910 AD)10 a分辨率的财政等级序列,并分析其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,秦朝至清末的财政平衡大体经历了4个相对充裕阶段(220 BC^31 BC,441~760 AD,961~1210 AD,1381~1910 AD)和3个相对匮乏阶段(30 BC^440 AD,761~960 AD,1211~1380 AD)。财政危机在寒冷-干旱的气候背景下爆发的可能性最大。财政平衡与温度和降水变化均成正相关,财政平衡的趋势性变化受长期的温度和降水变化影响较为明显。但受多因素的复杂反馈环节影响,两者在某些时段呈现反相位关系。

Based on the 1 101 records of fiscal balance（surplus or deficiency） in ancient China extracted from24 books dealing with the fiscal/economic history of China, this study first established the standards of fiscal level differentiation according to wording semantics. Then, a 2130-year-long（220 BC-1910 AD） fiscal sequence with decadal resolution is reconstructed to express the phase transition of fiscal balance in China. The relationship between fiscal fluctuation and climate change is further analyzed. It is found that fiscal fluctuations during 220 BC-1910 AD in China were featured cyclical changes. Four stages of relative fiscal surplus mainly distributed temporally during 220 BC-31 BC, 441-760 AD, 961-1210 AD, and 1381-1910 AD, respectively. Three stages of relative fiscal deficiency mainly were 30 BC-440 AD, 761-960 AD, and 1211-1380 AD,respectively. Fiscal balances during warmer/wetter periods were slightly better than that during colder/drier periods. Particularly, the probability for fiscal crisis increased significantly in a cold and dry climate. Correlation analysis shows that fiscal balance was positively and significantly correlated with both changes of temperature and precipitation. The long-run trends of fiscal fluctuation were strongly influenced by long-run changes of temperature as well as precipitation. Cold climate would affect agricultural production and incidence of wars and social unrests, which directly or indirectly influenced the imperial fiscal revenues and expenditures. However, there remained many other factors that would complicate the relationship between climate change and fiscal fluctuation. The results of moving correlation analysis indicated that climate-finance association obviously displayed an anti-phase pattern for certain periods. It is worth further explorations for the complex feedback mechanism among climate, finance and other multiple factors in different temporal and spatial scales.