摘要
中国城镇化水平不断上升,同时伴随能源消耗的迅速攀升,中国能源资源约束日益加剧、能源安全、碳排放约束等问题要求我们必须考虑城镇化对能源消费以及经济发展的影响。基于2007年中国投入产出表,编制社会核算矩阵,构建静态CGE模型,模拟城镇化对中国能源消费和经济增长的影响。结果显示:城镇化对宏观经济发展具有明显的正向拉动作用;受收入效应的影响,城镇化带来居民能源需求增加,同时替代效应使得生产部门能源投入增加,能源需求的增加推动能源价格上涨;城镇化使得居民总体福利上升,其中城镇居民福利增加更为显著。
China＇s urbanization level is rising with energy consumption. Short of energy,energy security and carbon emission demand to consider the influence of urbanization on China＇s energy consumption and economic development.This paper,based on China＇s input output 2007,uses social audit matrix and static CGE model to simulate the influence that urbanization has a strong positive pull to macroscopic economy,and leads to a rising energy demand influenced by income effect,increasing energy investment from substitution effect,ascending energy price,improving residents＇ welfares with urban residents better than rural ones.
出处
《资源与产业》
2015年第5期112-117,共6页
Resources & Industries
基金
基本科研业务资助优秀导师基金项目(35732015066)
关键词
能源消费
城镇化
CGE
中国
energy consumption
urbanization
CGE
China
