中国制造业区域转移的时空特征研究

Research on spatial characteristics and dynamic changes of industrial shift in China

运用区位基尼系数、份额变动和份额-偏离分析、标准差椭圆、局域空间自相关方法考察了我国制造业区域转移的时空特征.研究结论表明在2000~2013年间,中国制造业空间格局演变出现了先集聚后分散的发展趋势,东部地区制造业转出份额最大的为劳动密集型行业,之后为资金密集型和原材料密集型行业;通过LISA分析发现中国省域制造业存在显著的空间自相关和依赖性,即表示一个地区制造业的集聚会影响周边其他地区制造业的集聚;我国2005~2008年和2008~2013年两个阶段的制造业区域转移是主要由地区间竞争优势的变动所导致,而不是来源于各地区产业结构差异的变动.

Using the methods of Gini coefficient, Share analysis and the Shift-Share Analysis and Standard Deviational Ellipse, this paper analyzes the characteristics and dynamic changes of industrial shift in China by the data of Manufacturing production, throughout 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2013. The result suggests： the current situations and features of industrial shift showing that the degree of agglomeration of Chinese manufacturing experienced a change from2000 to 2011. The largest share of industrial transfer from eastern is labor-intensive industries, followed by capital-intensive and raw material intensive industries. On the basis of the number of industries and relative scale, the central region is the main area to undertake industrial transfer. China＇s manufaturing represents spatial autocorrelation and that the provincialmanufacturingis not completely in a random state but affectedby other regions. The share-shift analysis shows that industrial shift is caused by changes in the comparative advantages within regions, not by changes in the difference in industrial structure.