2015年中国秋冬种小麦市场形势展望及建议

Prospect and Suggestion on China's Winter Wheat Market in 2015

2015年即将到来的中国秋冬种小麦既有不利因素,也有有利因素。不利因素主要包括2015年夏收小麦效益较上年明显下降、秋冬种期间小麦市场价格偏弱、国内农业结构调整等;有利因素主要包括在"谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全"的国家新型粮食安全战略框架下,2016年小麦最低收购价政策继续执行的可能性大,小麦生产机械化程度高等。综合考虑,预计2015年秋冬种主产区小麦种植面积将保持基本稳定,非主产区面积仍有可能下降。

There are both unfavorable and favorable factors for the upcoming winter wheat planting in China in 2015. As for unfavorable factors, there are lower benefit of summer harvesting wheat than that in 2014, relatively weak market price during winter wheat planting period, the adjustment of domestic crop structure, and so on. As for favorable factors, there is the strong possibility that minimum purchase price for wheat will continuously implement in 2016, under the strategic framework of new national food security with grain essential self-sufficiency and ration absolute safety, the mechanization level of wheat production is high, and so on. To sum up, winter wheat planting areas in major production regions will be relatively stable in 2015, while downward in non-major production regions.