基于家庭属性和Nested Logit模型的学生出行选择特性分析

Choice Characteristics of Students Travel Behavior Based on Household Characteristics and Nested Logit Model

运用非集计模型中Nested Logit模型的理论与方法,以中小学生出行方式选择行为为对象,研究个人属性、家庭属性和出行特性对学生出行方式选择的影响。模型分上下两层,上层为公共交通和私人交通方式的选择,下层为小汽车、摩托车、自行车及步行交通方式的选择;利用SPSS软件对模型进行标定和检验,分析各因素对学生出行选择的影响。结果表明:家庭收入对于上下层交通方式选择影响大,收入高的家庭,学生出行更倾向于选择私人交通方式;是否拥有公交卡对上层交通方式影响最明显,当学生拥有公交卡时,其选择公共交通方式是私人方式的38倍;家庭交通工具拥有量和是否有人接送是下层交通方式选择的主要因素,家庭小汽车数量增加或有人接送时,学生出行选择小汽车的概率增加。

Based on nested Logit model,the impact on students travel behavior choices due to students＇ personal attributes,household characteristics and trip features was elaborated. A two-layer nested Logit model was established. The upper layer included public transit and private mode alternatives,and the lower layer included car,motorcycle,bicycle and walk. SPSS was used to calibrate and test the model according to survey data,and then the influence of household vehicle ownership,household income and other factors was analyzed. The results illustrate that household income is an important factor for mode choice,and students intend to choose private mode in a higher income household. Having a bus card or not is the most evident factors for upper mode choice,and students choosing public transit mode is 38 times than private mode when they have a bus card; household vehicle ownership and needing ferry or not are critical factors for lower mode choice,and the probabilities of students choosing a private mode are higher when their homes have a car or when there is someone picking up them.