地铁车站火灾风险的概率模糊评估研究

On the fire risk evaluation for the subway station based on the probability fuzzy theory

火灾风险评估是为了有效预防和减少火灾的发生。在对地铁车站火灾风险定量描述的基础上,从火灾发生概率和火灾危害性2个一级指标出发,建立地铁车站火灾风险概率模糊评估模型,并以某地铁车站为实例论述该模型的应用。评估得出,该地铁车站火灾风险隶属矩阵为(0.11,0.27,0.41,0.21),依据最大隶属度原则,该地铁车站的火灾风险等级为"一般风险";依据"赋值法",该地铁车站安全评价得分为82.19,对应安全等级为"一般"。二者结论一致,也与该地铁车站的实际安全状况相符。

This paper is attempting to introduce a fire risk evaluation model for subway station based on the AHP and probability fuzzy theory. For this study,we have established an evaluation index system in accordance with the defined fire risk sphere,which consists of three kinds of indexes at the different grades,including two first-grade evaluation indexes,four second-grade evaluation indexes and the thirty four third-grade evaluation ones through the quantitative description of the fire risks in the case of the subway stations. And,next,the list of the indicating system is supposed to be made up of the first-grade evaluation indexes both of ＂the probability of fire＂and＂the fire hazards to be faced with＂. Since we know that it is difficult to obtain the exact probability data of the likely-to-be-faced fire risk,we have to refer to the ambiguous expression with the aid of fuzzy theory. However,once the index system is set up,it is necessary to construct a hierarchical configuration of the system with the index weights to be accounted by the improved AHP. And,then,we have built up a membership matrix according to the expertise recommendation.Thirdly,the quantitative results can be worked out via formula（ 2）. And,finally,we have managed to accomplish a case study for a subway station with the Probability Fuzzy Evaluation technique and obtained the fire risk matrix（ 0. 11,0. 27,0. 41,0. 21）. According to the principle of the maximum membership grades,the fire risk to be faced with by the subway station can be attributed to the category of＂general risks＂. And,so,answering to the objective needs,we have brought about some necessary available suggestions on how to reduce the chance probability of the fire risks for the subway station furthermore. And,so far,we have worked out that the subway station safety evaluation score should be at 82. 19 by formula（ 5）,which belongs to the＂general＂ security level. Moreover,both of the conclusions prove to be consistent in line with the actual status in-situ security.Hence,the aforementioned probability fuzzy method we have adopted here proves to be feasible and rational,which can be taken as a theoretical refrence for preventing and controlling the subway station fire risk.