高层民用建筑火灾风险综合评估系统研究

Comprehensive fire risk evaluation system for high-rise civil buildings

为构建更为完善、科学的高层民用建筑火灾风险评价指标体系,并进而建立未确知C-均值聚类模型,对高层民用建筑火灾风险状况进行综合评价,以确定其发生火灾的危险性等级。首先针对目前高层民用建筑火灾风险评估研究存在的不足,提出总体思路。然后,基于危险源辨识,结合《高层民用建筑设计防火规范》,运用事故致因分析及专家调查等方法,分析影响高层民用建筑火灾发生的各种不确定性因素,建立了高层民用建筑火灾风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,根据高层民用建筑火灾风险评价的特点,引入未确知C-均值聚类智能化方法,建立了基于未确知聚类的高层民用建筑火灾风险综合评估模型,并进行了实证分析。结果表明,提出的高层民用建筑火灾风险综合评价系统可以保证高层建筑火灾风险评估的准确性。

With more and more high-rise civil buildings being put into public use,particularly in recent years,it has become an ever increasing need to establish a comprehensive fire prevention,control and fighting regulation system. The present article is aimed to establish a more scientific index system for the high-rise building fire risk evaluation,and to evaluate the risk status-quo and the fire risk level for such buildings based on the unascertained C-clustering model. To achieve the purpose,first of all,aiming at the existing problems of the existing fire risk evaluation studies for high-rise civil buildings,we have made an overall exploration of such currently used evaluation index systems while paying attention to their great distinctive features and the points they fail to pay attention to,for example,the distinctive features between the industrial buildings,the public buildings and civilian residential buildings are different. In doing so,we have brought about the overall research ideas in the focus of our target,though the calculation and evaluation results may not be very accurate.And,secondly,we have taken into account the three kinds of hazards currently present in high-rise civil buildings based on the hazard identification theory,along with the＂fire protection design of high-rise buildings＂,through the accident cause-and-effect analysis method,and other methods. And,simultaneously,practical analysis has also been done of the various fuzzy factors affecting the high-rise civil buildings,to establish the fire risk evaluation index system for such buildings including 4 first-grade indices and 15 second-grade indices. In it just on what is said above on the characteristic analysis of the high-rise fire risk evaluation that we have introduced the unascertained C-clustering method in formulating a comprehensive fire risk evaluation model of our own in this way. At last,an actual example has been offered to justify the validity and feasibility of the evaluation system we have developed. Thus,the comprehensive fire risk evaluation system for high-rise civil building we have initiated is expected to help to increase the fire risk evaluation accuracy for high-rise civil buildings and provide an effective decision-making device for the fire risk management of such buildings.