企业员工个体安全行为的人类动力学实证研究

Empirical study on the individual safety behavior of the employees based on human dynamics

对员工不安全行为的定量分析是理解安全生产事故复杂系统的基础。班组或群体的集体行为往往表现为复杂有序,具有一定的稳定性和适应性;而个体行为尽管有企业制度和纪律的约束,却仍有很大的随机性。为了探究企业员工不安全行为的动力学规律,跟踪观察某大型企业作业员工930 d,将员工相继不安全行为的发生看作排队理论中具有特定时间序列的随机过程。结果表明,就员工个体而言,其不安全行为的间隔时间分布可以用幂律函数近似描述,且幂指数和员工的活跃程度正相关;并进一步分析出企业员工相继不安全行为具有以艾宾浩斯遗忘曲线为特点的"阵发"性;从幂指数角度分析了员工日常作业中的不安全行为的优劣特点,比较了人类活动中的各种随机行为与员工在企业生产中的不安全行为在时间统计上的特性。这表明企业制定安全管理制度及实施安全培训工作都应从人类普遍问题和员工个体特点两方面入手。

The paper is attempting to engage itself in an empirical study on the individual safety behavior of the employees based on human dynamics in hoping to better understand the reason and regularity why production accidents take place from the point of view of the employees＇ reckless behaviors. Although the team or group＇s collective behaviors originate from more than one singular psychological motives,rather to be more complicated and even more boundless,there always lies some kind or kinds of background regular and stable deep-level original motives and background motivational stimulates,though individual behaviors are likely ruled by the enterprise system and collective or individual disciplines,which are likely to keep or bear their own random features. Having made a trace and track exploration of the dynamic characteristics of the employees＇ reckless behaviors through personal experience in touch with the employees in a large enterprise during a period of 930 days,the authors of this paper were tempting to define the consecutive reckless behaviors as the specific temporary actions in a random process in queuing theory. The research results of the exploration demonstrate that,（ 1） Based on the analysis of the data of the employees＇ reckless behaviors collected,it can be found that,from the human kinetic perspective,the frequency of the occurrence of such behaviors can verify the expectations of such reckless behaviors independent of the time interval of the power release distribution. It has also found that such reckless behaviors took place from time to time in a characteristic manner in a certain paroxysmal nature in terms of time interval,which is similar to the Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve. That is why it is necessary to focus on giving necessary safety training so as to correct or reduce such reckless behaviors by persuasion and education from human instinct;（ 2） The example of the mean time interval of the reckless behaviors of the three employees can meet their behavior power distribution regularity,which indicates their technical operational skill level. That is to say,the power function for such reckless behavior times is also in accord with the power distribution regularity,which shows that,with the prolonging of the working hours,no significant improvement can be found with their familiarity with the working environment and equipment. As for the same job scope and working environment,no obvious difference can be found in the operation level for the three sample workers numbered as A,B and C. Neither can be found with their cooperation, coordination and communication skills among the three.（ 3） No much deviation can be found from the statistics between the reckless behaviors and the regular behaviors of the others around. Thus,it can be concluded that the employees may tend to behave recklessly,if there is no regular safety management system training,education and safety stress.Otherwise,what you can expect is the relative change or regression. This further proves that the reckless behaviors of the employees are prone to trigger serious production and working consequences due to some kinds of stubbornness in their mind,which turns to be absolutely necessary to rectify and correct so as to get rid of hidden reckless behaviors,as is shown in Heinrich＇s 300：29： 1 law. Therefore,emphasis is needed to fight against the 300 potential hazards or violations to prevent one serious accident or fatality disaster.