城镇化对中国区域能源消费及居民生活能源消费的影响

Impact of urbanization on regional energy consumption and residents' energy consumption in China

通过引入城镇化和居民消费变量,拓展了能源消费分解的对数平均迪氏指数分解方法（LMDI）,并将区域能源消费和居民生活能源消费分解为能源结构、能源强度、人口规模、城镇化、居民消费和消费抑制6大效应,分析其对区域整体能源消费和居民能源消费的影响.结果表明：2003～2012年,城镇化对3大区域的能源消费和居民生活能源消费的贡献明显高于人口规模;人口的东部聚集现象使得东部地区人口规模效应最大;居民消费对区域能源消费和居民生活能源消费的驱动力远高于其它5大效应;源于居民消费相对于政府消费、资产投资和净出口等经济成分在节能方面的比较优势,居民消费率降低反而推动了区域能源消费的增长;能源利用技术进步放缓了区域能源消费的增长.

Expanded Logarithmic Mean Decomposition Index（LMDI） method through introducing variables of urbanization and residential consumption. Decomposed regional energy consumption and residential energy consumption into six effects as energy structure, energy intensity, population scale, urbanization, residential consumption, and consumption inhibit. And then, this paper analyzedits influence on the overall regional energy consumption and residential energy consumption. Results show that： From 2003 to 2012, impact of urbanization on regional energy consumption and residential energy consumption of Chinese three areas was significantly higher than population size; The ＂eastern gathered＂ phenomenon of population causedeastern region getting the largest Population Scale Effect; Driving force of residential consumption on regional energy consumption and residential energy consumption was much higher than the other five effects; Due to the comparative advantage of residential consumptioncompared with government consumption, investmentand net export, the decrease of ratio of consumptionpromoted the growth of regional energy consumption; The progress of energy utilization technology slowed the growth of regional energy consumption.