两阶段评估体系筛选水源突发污染应急最优技术方案

A two-stage evaluation system to identify optimum emergency disposal technology schemes of sudden water source pollutions

为预判突发污染对水源的威胁程度,进而筛选适宜污染情景的最优应急处置技术,本研究构建了包含10个评价指标的水源突发污染威胁度判别指标体系,依据威胁度等级判定,确定与不同威胁度对应的应急处置技术评估指标体系的指标权重.同时,为合理体现群决策过程中专家差异对权重的影响,提出了基于循环修正的群组G1指标赋权法.以Spearman等级相关系数作为检验标准,应用平均值法、Board法、Copeland法3种组合评价方法对单一专家评价结果进行循环迭代修正,最终得到评价指标的一致性排序和各位专家的权重,使各项指标的权重赋值更为准确.将综合评估模型应用于2012年广西龙江镉污染事故中,成功筛选出"调水稀释—絮凝沉降—水厂强化混凝"的组合应急技术方案,同实际情况吻合,验证了评估模型的可行性.

In order to predict the threat level of sudden pollution on water source for obtaining the optimum emergency disposal technology scheme, the threat-evaluation index system with 10 evaluation indexes is established in this study. The weights of the evaluation indicators are determined in accordance to corresponding threat levels. Besides, Group-G1 index weighting method based on circling correction is put forward for reflecting the influence of differences among experts on index weights in group decision making. With Spearman rank correlation coefficient as the test criterion, the consensus ranking of evaluation index and experts＇ weights are finally obtained through an iterative correction of onefold expert evaluation results with the combined evaluation methods integrating mean value method, Board method and Copeland method, so that the indexes are more accurate. In addition, the feasibility of this synthetic evaluation model has been verified through a sudden cadmium pollution incident that occurred in the Long River in 2012.