世界能源趋势预测及能源技术革命特征分析

Prediction of global energy trend and analysis on energy technology innovation characteristics

为了做好中国2050年能源技术发展战略研究，基于对世界能源趋势预测的结果，分析了世界能源体系演替规律，结果表明：①2035、2050年世界一次能源消费量将达到186．24×10。吨油当量和209．52×10。吨油当量；②天然气可能在2038年前后取代石油成为世界主导性能源；③2050年石油、天然气、煤炭在全球一次能源结构中的占比分别为25．16％、27．53％和240，核能可能升至8．51％；④油气作为世界主导性能源的战略地位还将保持相当长的一段时间。历史上主导性能源更替时期与世界新能源技术革命、科技革命、工业革命基本同期。据此推断，世界新能源技术革命可能出现在2038年前后的核能领域，其将决定下一个世纪的世界能源制高点，并带动新一轮世界科技和工业革命；新世界科技革命将带来传统主导性能源一系列重大技术创新，故分析认为2035--2050年将是中国油气工业从“跟随”到“引领”的重大历史机遇期。据此提出中国能源战略发展建议：①在核能技术领域，做好未来多期技术换代的产业布局及产能接替的优化设计；②在油气技术领域，稳油兴气、陆海并举；③在煤炭技术领域，控量提质，坚持走高效洁煤绿色发展之路；④在可再生能源领域，充分利用不同地区的资源结构特征，走差异化务实发展之路。

In order to provide Chings energy technology development strategtes in 2050, thts paper anatyzes the evotutton and reptace- ment rules of global energy systems based on the results of global energy trend prediction. It is shown that the global primary energy consumption will reach 186.24 × 108 t and 209.52 × 108 t oil equivalents respectively in 2035 and 2050. Natural gas may substitute for oil to be the predominant energy in the world in 2038. Oil, natural gas and coal will respectively account for 25.16%, 27.58% and 24% of global primary energies in 2050, and the percentage of nuclear energy may rise up to 8.51%. Obviously, oil and gas will stra- tegically act as global predominant energies for a long time. In history, the replacement of predominant energies and the technical and industrial innovation of global new energies occurred basically at the same period. It is inferred that technological innovation of global new energies may occur in the sector of nuclear energy in 2038. It will determine the commanding point of global energies in the fol- lowing century and bring along a new round of world technological and industrial innovation, which will result in a series of impor- tant technological innovation in traditional predominant energies. It is indicated that the years from 2035 to 2050 is the momentous opportunity period for Chinffs oil and gas industry to move into the stage of ＂leading＂ from ＂following＂. On this basis, China＇s energy development strategy is proposed as follows. Firstly, carry out industrial layout of multiphase technological replacement and optimal design of productivity replacement in the field of nuclear technology. Secondly, stabilize oil production and develop gas production in both continents and marines in the field of oil and gas technologies. Thirdly, control quantity, improve quality, and stick to high-effi- ciency green coal development in the field of coal technology. Fourthly, realize pragmatic development in the field of renewable ener- gies by making full use of the resource structures in different areas,