金融危机与出口质量变动:口红效应还是倒逼提升

Lipstick Effect and Reverse Push Effectof Financial Crisis on Export Quality Dynamics

金融危机冲击对出口质量变动存在着双重效应:口红效应和倒逼提升效应,在口红效应下出口质量会降低,在倒逼效应下出口质量得到提升。文章运用需求残差法基于2000-2011年的中国海关数据测算了中国出口产品质量,发现金融危机后中国整体出口产品质量呈轻微S型下降,其中国有、合资企业呈显著S型下降,而民营企业呈显著U型上升,且在样本末期民企出口质量首次超过国企。在此基础上,文章从四个因素(内部升级、外部重构、进入驱动、退出驱动)来分解和刻画出口质量的变动,研究表明口红效应引致的外部结构重配是国企出口质量下降的核心因素,倒逼效应引致的进入驱动是民企出口质量上升的核心因素。

This paper analyzes how the export quality responds to the recent financial crisis which turns out to have a profound impact on the global econo- my. Mainly two opposite forces work here.The lipstick effect lowers the export quality while the reverse push effect pushes quality up.Using the custom office data from 2000 to 2011, and based on the demand shift method, the paper finds an S-shape decline for total export quality, an S-shape decline for both state- owned enterprises （SOEs） and joint venture enterprises （JVEs） but aU-shape growth for the private domestic firms （PDFs）.The export quality of PDF exceeds that of the SOEs in the end of the sample.The paper further decomposes the quality growth into four components： internal upgrading, external reshuffling,entry and exit, and verifies that the export quality decline of SOEs results from the lip- stick effect while the increased export quality of PDFs is due to the reverse oush effect.