地方财政行为与中国贸易收支:约束还是激励

Relationship between Regional Fiscal Behavior and China's Trade Balance

本文通过构建双边随机前沿模型,在考虑财政约束和财政激励的情况下,实证测度了地方财政行为对贸易收支的驱动性影响。研究结果表明:财政激励效应要明显强于财政约束效应,因此地方财政行为会导致实际贸易收支的整体偏高,这也是中国贸易收支长期处于顺差状态的重要症结;平均而言,财政激励行为将使贸易收支高出基准水平76.69%,而财政约束行为则能使实际贸易收支降低69.54%。当前财政约束机制的调控效果正逐步显现,将推动中国贸易收支向"再平衡"状态趋近;财政激励行为和财政约束行为对贸易收支的影响具有显著的区域异质性。东部地区的财政激励效应最强,净指数也最高,而中部地区的净指数最低,其贸易收支趋于基准水平。同时,各地区不同分位点上贸易收支的变动幅度也不尽相同。

The theoretical model indicates that trade balance can be affected by both fiscal constraints and fiscal motivations. This paper utilizes two-tier sto- chastic frontier model to measure the trade balance effects of regional fiscal be- haviors. The results show that： （1） effects of fiscal motivations are stronger than those of fiscal constraints, thus, fiscal behaviorsmake the real trade balance move above the baseline; （2） fiscal motivations increase the trade balance by 76.69%, while fiscal constraints decrease the trade balance by 69.54%. Fiscal constraints are currently prominent which will make China＇ s trade balance approach its re- balance state; （3） the effects of fiscal constraints and fiscal motivations have sig- nificant regional heterogeneity. Fiscal motivations in the eastern area are the stron- gest and the net index is the highest while the western net index is the lowest. Meanwhile, regional trade balances on each quantile are also different.