安徽省温室气体排放趋势及减排路径研究

A prelimary study on the tendency of greenhouse gas emissions and reduction approach in Anhui Province

控制温室气体排放是我国积极应对全球气候变化的重要任务,区域温室气体排放控制是实现国家减排目标的基本保障。通过建立安徽省温室气体排放量的指标体系,计算安徽省2001—2010年十年间各领域产生的温室气体,并利用回归分析预测安徽省2015年和2020年温室气体排放量;应用聚类分析方法将全省各地市温室气体排放类型进行划分,利用地理信息系统(Arc GIS)软件分析碳排放空间格局。结果显示:2001年以来,安徽省的温室气体排放量呈现逐年上升趋势,至2010年达到3.96x108 t。单位GDP碳排放量自2007年开始呈现下降趋势,表明碳减排的经济效益已有所提高。在各排放源类别中,原煤消耗产生碳排放量最多,且增势明显。区域格局分析表明,马鞍山市为省内工业发达城市,温室气体排放源主要为能源及工业领域,排放量也较多,温室气体排放地域差异显著。根据安徽省经济发展特点及温室气体排放特征有针对性提出的减排对策对于健全全省碳减排体系具有积极意义。

Greenhouse gas control is an important task for our country to relieve the global warming. Regional greenhouse gas emission control ensures to come to national goal. In this study we constructed an index system for greenhouse gas emissions estimation in Anhui Province, and calculated the greenhouse gas emissions from 2001 to 2010 in various fields. We predicted greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 and 2020 in Anhui Province based on the regression analysis. We divided the types of greenhouse gas emissions for the cities in Anhui Province based on the results of clustering analysis, and also analyzed the spatial pattern of carbon emissions using the geographic information system（GIS） method. The results showed that the provincial greenhouse gas emissions increased year by year and rose up to 396 million in 2010. It shows a gradual trend of decline in per unit of GDP carbon emissions since 2007, which suggested that the economic benefits of the corresponding carbon emissions have been improved. In the category of the emission sources, carbon emission caused by coal consumption was most obvious. Maanshan was an industry developed city in the province which was the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions for energy and industrial areas. The greenhouse gas emissions were significantly different from each other regions. Based on the characteristics of economic development in Anhui Province and greenhouse gas emissions characteristics, some measures are proposed to perfect the system of carbon emission reduction.