灰色拓扑模型在矿井瓦斯涌出量的应用

Application of the Grey Topology Model to the Mine Gas Emission

针对GM(1,1)模型在矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的不足,在灰色预测模型基础上引入了拓扑预测,将两者的优点结合起来,建立了矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的灰色拓扑预测模型.继而将该模型应用到采区工作面的瓦斯涌出量预测的分析中.实验结果表明:原始数据的GM(1,1)模型结果与测量值相差很大,且不满足精度要求,而采用灰色拓扑预测模型要求精度达到"很好"级别,预测结果和实测结果波形变化一致,绝对误差为0.2m^3/min,相对误差为3.8%,误差小.实验验证了灰色拓扑模型能够解决传统的GM(1,1)模型对于波动类型数据预测的不足.对于矿井瓦斯管理具有指导意义.

According to GM（1,1） model for prediction of the amount of emission is insufficient in mine,introduces the topological prediction based on the grey prediction model,combine the advantages of both,established grey topology prediction of mine gas emission prediction model.Then,the model is applied to the analysis and prediction of gas emission in coal mining face.The experimental results show that：the original data of the GM（1,1） model results and the measured values vary greatly,and does not meet the requirements of precision,while using the grey topology prediction model requires precision to achieve ＂better＂ level,the prediction results and measured results of waveform change is consistent.The absolute error is 0.2m^3/min,the relative error is 3.8%,the error is small.Experimental verification of the grey topological model can solve the problem of the traditional GM（1,1） model for prediction of wave type data deficiency.It has guiding significance for mine management.