我国的资本外流有那么严重吗?——评外资行对于资本外流规模的估算

How Serious Is China's Capital Outflow?

近期,摩根大通一篇阐述中国资本大幅流出的报告引起了市场的广泛关注,其根据外汇储备变化及贸易盈余测算二季度中国资本流出规模达到1420亿美元,过去五个季度的总流出规模达到5200亿美元,高盛随后更是给出了二季度资本流出2240亿美元的核算数据。两家外资投行的数据让市场震惊,我们认为上述机构高估了当前资本流出的规模,并或会致使市场低估后续的资本流动压力。

Recently,foreign Banks have made a report to China's capital outflows,which have caused widespread concern in the market.The view in this paper is that foreign Banks have overestimated the size of the current capital outflows and capital outflows are not as exaggerated scale foreign firms described.However,the decision-makers still have to be cautious on capital outflows and timely control supplement liquidity by dropping quasi and carrying directional operation.