美国“凝析油出口”解读及其发展趋势分析

Analysis of the U.S. condensate exports

美国凝析油行业的发展仍处于起步阶段,但已经形成较为完整的产业框架。预计2015年美国油田凝析油生产量可达6500万吨。预计到2018年,油田凝析油生产量可提升至8000万吨。通过逐渐打破物流瓶颈,美国本土产凝析油以简单有效的方式实现出口,迈向了国际市场。2014年7月至2015年7月,美国已出口凝析油(通过凝析油稳定处理装置)共计约400万吨。2018年预计将有1500万吨的油田凝析油资源出口至美国以外的市场。随着美国墨西哥湾地区凝析油产量增加,将有更多产量无法被美国国内的炼油及分离加工装置消化,预计到2018年该地区凝析油过剩总量可达850万吨或1250万吨,也将对原油及凝析油的价格造成持续压力。未来美国原油全面出口的可能性已然增加,但政府是否取消原油出口禁令还取决于简易处理流程的成本和国际市场接纳程度等诸多因素,低油价新常态形势也增加了美国原油出口的阻力。

The U.S. condensate industry is still in its infancy but has become a full-fledged industry of its own. Production capacity is expected to reach around 65 million metric tons in 2015, and to grow to 80 million metric tons by the end of 2018. By progressively debottlenecking logistics the U.S. has been producing condensate in a simple and effective way for export. In the year ending July 2015 the U.S. exported up to 4 million metric tons of condensate through stable handling facilities and in 2018 there are expected to be 15 million metric tons of oilfield condensate resources available for export. With aggravated production overcapacity on the U.S. Gulf Coast and domestic refining and processing installations unable to accept the surplus, total U.S. condensate surplus is expected to reach from 8.5 million to 12.5 million tons in 2018, which will put continued downward pressure on the price of crude oil and condensate. The possibility of greater U.S. crude export is thus already increasing; however, whether the government will eventually remove the ban on exporting crude oil simply depends on the cost of the whole procedure and the global market＇s acceptance level etc. of many factors but the new normal low crude price environment will increase resistance to it.