地方政府财政支出与居民消费——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析

Local government fiscal expenditure and resident consumption——analysis of the dual perspective based on the total and structure effect

从理论上说,地方政府财政支出对居民消费的影响效应有"挤入"与"挤出"之争。运用安徽省16个地级市面板数据,从总量和结构效应两个维度来实证分析地方政府财政支出对城乡居民消费的影响。结果表明:从总量效应看,地方政府财政支出对城乡居民消费均具有"挤入"效应,且对城镇居民消费的挤入效果更明显。从结构效应看,地方政府行政管理支出对城乡居民消费均具有"挤出"效应;医疗卫生支出对城乡居民消费均具有"挤入"效应;教育支出对城镇居民消费具有"挤入"效应,但是对农村居民消费的影响却不明显;社会保障支出对城乡居民消费的影响均不明显。

In theory,the effect of fiscal expenditure impact on residents＇ consumption can be divided into two aspects： ＂ crowding- in- effect＂ or ＂ crowding- out- effect＂. Using the panel data of 16 cities from Anhui province,this paper analyses the influence of local government fiscal expenditure to consumption of urban and rural residents from the two dimensions of the total and structure effects. The results shows： from the total effect,local government fiscal expenditure has ＂ crowd- in- effect＂ on the consumption of urban and rural residents,and the consumption of urban residents ＇crowding- in- effect＇ is more obvious than that of the rural residents. From the structure effect,the administrative expenditure of local government has ＂ crowding- out- effect＂ on the consumption of urban and rural residents; the health expenditure has ＂ crowding- in- effect＂ on the consumption of urban and rural residents; education expenditure has ＂ crowding- in- effect＂ on consumption of urban residents,but the impact on rural residents＇ consumption is not obvious; the effects of social security expenditure on bot the urban and rural residents＇ consumption are not obvious.