全球铜市场未来五年发展展望

The Outlook on the Global Copper Market Development for the Next Five Years

全球铜市将进入再调整、再平衡阶段,供给面临前期新建/扩建项目产能释放及中国进入废铜回收高峰期的压力,需求端面临中国铜需求放缓以及铜产品被替代进程加快的压力。这一形势下,全球大型矿企生产成本将是铜价波动的下限支撑,铜铝比价则形成压力线,短期铜价低点料将穿破5000美元/吨。随着市场供需形势的反转,全球铜产业链集中度将进一步提高,资源+冶炼型企业竞争优势将逐步凸显,资源端竞争聚焦于成本控制与资源储备。面对行业发展趋势,中国企业海外铜资源开发应重点从运营管理及产业链协作方面寻求突破。

The global copper market will enter a readjustment and rebalancing phase. In this phase, production release of previous new projects and expansion projects, and the arrival of waste copper recycling peak season of China will put more pressure on the supply. At the same time, a slowdown in copper demand of China, and alternative to copper product expedited will also put pressure on the demand. Under this circumstance, the cost of production of the world＇s large mining companies will be the lower support for copper price fl uctuations, the price parities between copper and aluminum will form the pressure line; short-term copper prices low will expect to break $5000 / ton. As the reversal of the supply and demand conditions of the market, global copper industrial concentration will be further improved; resources plus smelting enterprises competitive advantage will gradually highlights; resource competition focuses on cost control and resource reserves. In the face of industry development trend, Chinese enterprises should enhance their efforts to seeking breakthrough in operations management and industrial chain collaboration with regard to copper resources development in foreign countries.