美国页岩油气发展趋势及影响

Shale Oil and Gas Development Trend of America and Its Effect on the World Energy Structure

近年来页岩油气革命对美国经济的复苏起到了重要的推动作用,降低了化工原料成本,推动了化学工业发展;美国原油对外依存度不断降低,天然气基本实现自给,页岩油气发展势头减缓。对世界能源格局的影响:页岩油产量的快速增长是国际原油暴跌的重要因素之一;页岩油气革命对全球能源供需格局带来深刻影响;美国战略重心已转移到亚太。分析认为,市场化是美国实现页岩油气重大突破的关键,页岩油气的突破颠覆了常规油气的发展轨迹。政策建议:(1)加强常规油气的勘探开发;(2)积极推进我国石油工业的市场化改革;(3)政府应减少对石油企业的行政干预。

In recent years, shale oil and gas revolution has played an important role in economic recovery in the U.S. For example, the cost of chemical raw material has been reduced, with the result that the development of chemical industry has been promoted. At the same time, crude oil external dependence of America has been constantly decreased, basically achieving self-suffi ciency in natural gas, and development momentum of shale oil and gas has slowed down. This paper analyzes the infl uence of shale oil and gas development trend on the world energy structure. This infl uence is that the rapid growth of shale oil production is one of the important factors which lead to the international crude oil tumbled; shale oil and gas revolution has impacted profoundly the global energy supply and demand pattern. As a result, the United States strategic focus has shifted to the Asia-Pacifi c region. That analysis suggests that marketization holds the key to achieving shale oil and gas breakthrough; and this breakthrough overturns the development track of conventional oil and gas. On this basis, this paper offers some policy suggestions that we must do in China. These suggestions lay emphasis on the following： enhancing efforts on the conventional oil and gas exploration and development; pushing market-oriented reform of our country＇s petroleum industry forward in an active fashion; and the government should reduce administrative intervention for oil companies.