基于引力模型的安徽省县域经济增长影响因素分析

An Analysis of the Influential Factors on the County-level Economic Growth of Anhui Province Based on the Gravity Model

基于城市经济引力模型,构建了安徽省县域经济增长的引力模型,利用安徽省17个城市及其所辖县2003—2012年的面板数据进行实证检验,对安徽省县域经济增长的引力因素和阻力因素进行检验.检验结果表明:农村人均家庭经营耕地规模、农业技术水平、城市经济规模对县域经济增长产生了显著的促进作用,而农村经济规模、偏向于城市的收入分配体制、城乡距离、农业现代化水平则抑制了县域经济的增长.研究表明,要顺利推进安徽省县域经济增长需要转变经济发展思路,在保证三次产业共同发展的同时,加强基础设施建设,缩小收入差距,促进社会公平.

Based on the gravity model of urban economy,this paper constructs a gravity model of county economic growth in Anhui with the panel data of the 17 cities and their counties of Anhui Province from 2003- 2012 to test the gravitational factors and resistance factors of the county＇s economic growth. Test results show that the per household farmland scale of the countryside,agricultural technical level,and urban economy scale place a significant role in promoting the county economy. The rural economy scale,the income distribution system,the distance between countrysides and cities and the level of agricultural modernization inhibit the county ＇s economic growth. This study shows that in order to promote the growth of county economy,Anhui needs to transform the economic development ideas. In ensuring the common development of three industries,it needs to strengthen infrastructure construction,narrow the income gap,and promote social equity.