贸易开放、人力资本与中国能源消耗

Trade Openness,Human Capital and Energy Consumption in China

文章从贸易开放对中国能源消耗产生的影响这一基本问题出发,将人力资本纳入分析视角,研究了贸易开放、人力资本对中国能源消耗的直接效应和交互效应。利用中国2001-2012年30个省份的统计数据,运用固定效应回归模型和面板门槛回归模型进行了实证研究,结果表明:贸易开放对能源消耗的直接效应呈倒"U"型曲线关系,即在贸易开放水平较低时,提高贸易开放水平将增加能源消耗量并提高能源消耗强度;当贸易开放水平较高时,提高贸易开放水平反而能促使能源消耗量和能源消耗强度降低。人力资本对能源消耗的直接效应显著为负,提高人力资本要素积累将促进地区经济增长从物质资本驱动型向人力资本驱动型转变。贸易开放与人力资本对能源消耗的交互效应在人力资本处于较高的门槛区间时显著为负,说明贸易开放在人力资本较高的地区将促进该地区专业化生产节能降耗的人力资本密集型产品,从而降低地区能源消耗量并提高能源利用效率。

Concerning the problem that what impact trade openness has on energy consumption, this paper adds human capital into the analysis perspective and studies trade openness and human capital＇s direct effect and interactive effect on energy consumption in China. By applying 30 provincial statistic data from 2001 to 2012, this paper uses fixed effects regression model and panel thresh- old regression model do an empirical study. The results show that the direct effect of trade openness on energy consumption demon- strates an inverted ＂U＂ type curve. When the trade openness is in the low-level, raising the level of trade openness will increase en- ergy consumption and energy intensity. When the trade openness is in the high-level, raising the level of trade openness will de- crease energy consumption and energy intensity. Human capital＇s direct effect on energy consumption is significant negative. Impro- ving human capital accumulation will promote regional economic growth form transfer from physical capital driven to human capital driven. When human capital is in the high threshold range, trade openness and human capital＇s interactive effect on energy con- sumption is significant negative. In provinces where human capital is relatively high, trade openness will enhance human capital in- tensive an industry grow, thus decreases energy consumption and improves energy efficiency.