新型农村社会养老保险合意替代率研究——以江苏省为例

The Research on the Reasonable Replacement Rate of New Rural Social Old-age Insurance——A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

"新农保"作为一项试点政策,其合意替代率的研究不仅能为政府完善这一政策提供参考,而且关系到农民的切身利益和参保积极性。在扩展线性消费模型(ELES模型)的基础上构建"新农保"的合意替代率下限模型,并以江苏省为例对"新农保"的合意替代率下限进行测算,结果表明,"新农保"的合意替代率下限应维持在50%左右,而现行政策之下的现实替代率则相对较低,通过提高个人账户养老基金的收益率和提高缴费档次等方式可以提高现实替代率。

The ＂new rural social old-age insurance＂ is a pilot policy, so the research on its reasona- ble replacement rate can not only provide a reference for the government to improve this policy, but al- so affect the farmers＇ vital interests and insurance initiative. A model is designed to set the lower limit of the new rural social old-age insurance＇s reasonable replacement rate on the base of ELES model, and then the reasonable replacement rate of new rural social old-age insurance is calculated with Jiang- su Province as an example. The results show that the reasonable replacement rate should be main- rained at about 50 %, but the actual substitution rate according to the current policy is relatively low, and can be improved by increasing the personal account funds＇ rate of return and pay grades.