北京保障性住房资金需求量化研究

Quantitative Analysis of the Demand of Funding for Building Indemnificatory Housing in Beijing

保障性住房建设需要巨大的资金支持,但这项工程到底需要多少资金投入,由于测算依据和方法存在争议,目前尚无准确的量化数据。本文考虑长期、短期保障房动态需求因素的差异,短期将家庭户规模与保障房面积大小相对应,测算"十二五"期间保障房资金需求量;长期将人口增长、通货膨胀等因素纳入量化模型,运用"月供-收入法"细化保障对象数量,采取"政府补贴差值"法测算保障房资金需求净值,得到北京未来30年保障房建设资金需求的量化数值。根据本文测算结果,北京保障房建设存在巨大的资金缺口。

As an important livelihood project,indemnificatory housing needs a lot of funds. However,there is still no accurate quantitative data,because the measurement basis and method are controversial. In this paper,the different dynamic demand factors between long and short-term are considered. For the period of 12 th five-year plan part,the specific amount is measured and calculated by taking both the family scale and the size of indemnificatory housing into consideration. And in regards to the next 30 years,the demand of money is dynamically quantified by considering population growth,inflation etc,the quantity of security objects is refined with the method of the＂monthly installment payment-income＂,and the perspective of ＂government subsidies difference＂is selected to measure and calculate the net demand of funding of indemnificatory housing. Compared with the finished value of investment,there is still a large financing gap.