蒙特卡洛方法在电力系统静态安全风险评估中的应用

Application of Monte carlo methods in power system static security risk assessment

基于风险理论,综合考虑故障概率和故障严重程度评估电力系统静态安全风险。采用非序贯蒙特卡洛方法抽取系统的故障状态,提出通过失负荷风险指标、电压越限风险指标和过载风险指标对电力系统静态安全进行分析,并采用3标度层次分析法来确定系统单项风险值与综合风险值之间的权重关系。还对各项指标的应用进行了探讨分析,并利用河南某地区实际电网对各项风险指标进行了计算分析。算例表明基于蒙特卡洛方法的电力系统静态安全风险评估是可行的,它能定量的给出系统风险水平,为电力系统静态安全风险分析的研究提供一些有益参考。

Considering the fault probability and the severity of the fault together based on the risk treory,the paper used the non-sequential Monte Carlo method to extract the fault status of the system,analyzed the static security of the power system by the loss-load risk indicator,the voltage off-limited risk indicator and the overload risk indicator,and used 3-scaled analytic hierarchy process to determine the relationship of weight between the single risk value and the comprehensive risk value. It also discussed the application of the indicators,analyzed and calculated the risk indicators of a real gird in Henan province. The example showed that the power system static security risk assessment based on the Monte Carlo method is feasible,which can quantitatively provide the level of systemic risk and also some useful reference for power system static security risk analysis study.