电能质量预测与预警机制及其应用

Mechanism of Power Quality Forecast and Early Warning and Their Application

提出了电能质量预测与预警机制,基于历史数据对未来阶段的电能质量状况进行预测与预警,使电能质量问题得到等级化分析。结合配电网的特点和现状,提出了适合于配网的基于线性回归模型、随机时间序列模型和灰色模型的优选组合预测模型,预测电能质量的未来状况。在此基础上,提出了电能质量的预警等级及其过程、构建预警机制、发布电能质量预警信息。最后,实例与应用分析验证了设计的电能质量预测与预警机制的实用性和有效性。

The power quality forecast and early warning mechanism are proposed,and the historical data are utilized to effectively predict the future stage of electric energy quality and then provides early warning. In addi-tion,the power quality problem can be addressed by grading analysis.According to the characteristics and the status quo of power grid,the combination forecast is proposed,which is based on linear regression model,gray model and random time series model,to predict the power quality in the future. Furthur,the power quality warning level and its process is proposed,then the early warning mechanism of power quality is built up. Finally,the example and application analysis verify that the power quality forecast and early warning mechanism have the strong practicality and effectiveness.