基于证据理论的地铁工程施工风险评价研究

Evaluation Research for Construction Risk of the Subway Project Based on Evidence Reasoning

通过对地铁工程项目施工阶段主要风险因素的分析研究,从进度风险、质量风险、成本风险、安全风险四个方面,建立了地铁工程项目施工风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,采用D-S证据合成的方法评价施工风险,并进行实例分析,结果表明,D-S证据合成方法进行地铁工程施工风险评价具有一定的有效性和实用性。

Some primary factors of the construction phase of subway construction project were analyzed by considering some factors, such as schedule risk, quality risk, cost risk and security risk in this paper. And an index system of construction risk evaluation was established. On this basis, the method of evidence rea- soning was adopted to evaluate construction risk. The results showed that the method of evidence reasoning is practical and effective to evaluate subway construction risk.