建国以来省域竞技体育实力的空间集聚演变——基于ESDA方法分析

Evolution of Spatial Agglomeration of the Provincial Competitive Sports Strengths Since the Founding of PRC

省域竞技体育的均衡发展是我国竞技体育可持续发展的重要内容。通过搜集历届全运会各省得分(反映各省竞技体育实力)和近年来反映各省社会发展的相关指标,运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法,采用Open Geo Da和Arc GIS10软件对相关数据进行处理,探索我国省域竞技体育实力的空间集聚演变规律。研究表明,建国以来,我国省域竞技体育实力具有明显的空间集聚特征,集聚程度经历了"逐渐减弱、稳步增强、急速下降和迂回提高并趋于稳定"四个过程;LISA散点图显示,省域竞技体育实力正的空间关联性呈现出"高-高""低-低"的集聚分布特点,其中"低—低"集聚特征更加突出;建国后至20世纪末,除"低-低"类型所在区域相对稳定外,"极化区""冷点""热点"的空间分布都出现较大变化,直到2005年以后,四种类型的空间分布格局才基本稳定。

Balanced development of ＂provincial competitive sports＂（ PCS） is an important aspect of sustainable sports development in China. By collecting the scores obtained by each province in the previous National Games（ reflecting the strength of PCS） and its related social development indexes,the paper,using the models of ESDA and Open Geo Da and Arc GIS10 software for data processing,analyzes the evolution of spatial agglomeration and its influence factor regarding the strength of PCS. The research shows that the strength of PCS has obvious spatial agglomeration features since the founding of PRC,the degree of which went through four processes of waning,steadily increasing,rapid declining and detouring to stability. LISA scatter diagram shows that the positive spatial correlation of PCS indicates a ＂ high- high＂,＂ low- low＂ agglomeration distribution characteristics with the ＂low- low＂ agglomeration features more prominent. From the founding of the PRC to the end of the20 th Century,only the ＂ low- low＂ type region remain relatively stable while big changes are witnessed in the spatial distribution of ＂ polarization＂,＂ cold＂,＂ hot＂ regions. It was not until after 2005 when the four types of spatial distribution patterns became basically stable.