基于信息扩散论的贵州省雷暴活动强度分析

Analysis of Thunderstorm Activity Intensity in Guizhou Province Based on Information Diffusion Theory

本文基于信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型,以贵州各区县1986—2010年的雷暴日观测数据为集值,分析各区县的雷暴活动强度分布情况,为防雷工程的合理化设计提供依据。分析结果表明：全省各区县雷暴活动强度以中、多雷暴区为主,其中少、中、多、强雷暴的发生概率分别为低于10.78%、低于61.82%、介于29.42%至99.85%之间、低于6.10%。雷暴活动强度区域分布大致随纬度变化,强雷暴、多雷暴、中雷暴、少雷暴频发区呈现由西南向北分布;其中西南部安龙、兴仁、盘县雷暴日高于90天的可能性高于其他区域,约为20a一遇;雷暴日不大于25天最可能发生在北部仁怀、赤水、务川等地,呈现10-20a一遇。

In this paper, based on the fuzzy mathematics model of information diffusion theory, and the thunderstorm observation data 1986 - 2010 of each district and county in Guizhou province the thunderstorm intensity distribution of various districts and counties is analyzed, to provide the basis for the rational design of lightning protection engineering. The analysis results show that the thunderstorm activities in each county are mainly medium, and strong; and the probability of the less, medium, more, strong thunderstorms was less than 10.78%, less than 61.82%, ranging from 29.42% to 99.85%, less than 6.10% respectively. The regional distribution of thunderstorm activity intensity roughly goes with latitude, and the frequent area of strong, more, medium, less thunderstorms distributed from southwest to North. The probability of more than 90 days of thunderstorms in the southwestern Anlong, Xingren, Panxian is higher than that in other areas about once every 20 years. Thounderstorms not more than 25 days are more likely in the northen Renhuai, Chishui, Wuchuan, about once every 10 to 20 years.