基于云模型的电力变压器风险评估及检修策略制定

Risk Assessment and Working-out of Maintenance Strategy for Power Transformer Based on Cloud Model

针对传统风险评估方法存在评价指标等同对待、当故障风险指数(RPN)相等时无法进行评估、评估结果准确性低等不足,根据云模型所具有的随机性与模糊性特点,建立了基于云模型的电力变压器故障模式及影响分析模型,并将其用于变压器的风险分析。实例计算结果表明:该方法不仅可以对变压器主要部件的风险度进行有效排序,还可以解决传统方法中当风险优先级相同时无法进行评估的问题(如实例中的铁芯与OLTC),为采取有效的运行维修策略、提高电力变压器的安全性和经济性提供了有力依据。

To solve the problems of traditional risk assessment methods such as non-differential analysis of evaluation indexes, impossibility of risk evaluation with equal risk priority numbers （RPN）, and low accuracy of evaluation results, according to randomness and fuzziness of cloud model,we established a cloud model based on the failure mode and effect analysis （FMEA） of power transformer, and applied it to the practical risk assessment for power transformer.The assess- ment results show that the proposed method not only can effectively sort risk degree of main components of transformer, but also solve the impossibility of risk evaluation with equal RPN （such as core and OLTC）. So this proposed method can provide a convincing foundation for efficient maintenance strategy and the improvement of security and economy.