我国石油供需安全的系统动力学分析

Supply / Demand Safety Analysis for Oil in China Based on System Dynamics

基于我国2000—2012年人口、经济、能源和环境等数据,对我国石油生产、消费、净进口现状进行分析,运用系统动力学方法,建立我国石油供需预测SD模型,并通过模型有效性检验验证模型有效性,以此对我国2013—2035年石油供需趋势进行预测。预测结果显示:我国石油消费增长迅速,国内产能不足,对外依存度过高,对我国石油安全造成了严重威胁。最终根据预测结果和情景分析,为保障我国石油供需安全提出政策建议。

The current situation of the oil production,oil consumption and net import of China is analyzed on the basis of annual data of 2000- 2012 in China such as population,economy,energy and environment. By using system dynamics method,this paper establishes a forecasting model for supply / demand of oil to study the safety of oil and predict the growing trend of this energy in the future years in China. And the forecasting model validity is verified. The research shows that,in China,oil consumption is growing rapidly and domestic production capacity is insufficient; oil dependency is too high. Moreover,these factors are causing a grave threat to petroleum security. Finally,some policy suggestions in order to ensure supply / demand safety for oil are presented according to the result of forecast and scenario analysis.