收入分配不平等、生育率与劳动生产率——兼论低生育率下我国的长期经济增长

Income Distribution Inequity,Fertility Rate and Labor Productivity——An Discussion of China's Long- Term Economic Growth Underground of Low Fertility Rate

通过构建一个世代交叠的局部均衡分析框架，研究了收入分配不平等对劳动生产率及生育率的影响，同时使用28个OECD国家1961—2011年的跨国面板数据进行了验证。研究结果表明，收入分配不平等的加剧有利于促进劳动生产率的提高，增加低收入者的单位人力资本投入，而金融自由化程度的提升会放大这一效应；收入不平等的加剧会提高技能劳动者的再生产数量，同样会促进劳动生产率的提高；我国强制性生育政策会扭曲收入不平等对劳动生产率的促进作用，不利于长期经济增长。

This paper had estabhshed a theoretical framework of partial equilibrium in an Overlapping Generation Model and analyzed the effects of income inequity on labor productivity and fertility rate and supplied empirical evidences to theoretical results by using 28 countries panel data during 1961-2011. The empirical results had shown that the aggravation of income inequity had presented strong positive effects on unit labor productivity progress and these effects would be amplified under the influence of domestic financial liberalization. The results had showed that income inequity also had positive effects on fertility rate and were helpful to increase the quantity of the reproduction of skilled children. The analysis of this paper had important directing meaning to China＇ s adjusting of fertility and in- come redistribution policies. However, the mandatory fertility polices would distort the enforcement of income inequity to labor productivity improvement and be harmful to China＇ s long-Term economic growth.