国际资本流动的经济增长效应——基于不同汇率制度的一个检验

The Economic Growth Effect of International Capital Flow——A Test Based on Different Exchange Rate Regime

通过考察1982～2013年国际资本流动对我国经济增长的影响，发现国际资本流动总体上有助于经济增长；在固定汇率制度下，资本流入会阻碍经济增长，资本流出会推动经济增长，而浮动汇率制度下的情况正好相反，且国际资本流动会加剧经济波动；不同类型的国际资本流动对经济增长的影响不同，国际资本流动总量和分量的经济增长效应会随汇率制度的改变而变化，因此，我国必须同时对国际资本流动总量及其分量进行监管。

This paper examined the economic growth effect of international capital flow in China during 1982-2013. The results showed that, international capital flows contribute to the domestic economic growth in China on the whole. During the fixed exchange rate system, international capital inflows will hinder economic growth, and capital outflow will promote economic growth. While in the floating exchange rate system, the situation is just opposite, and will strengthen the fluctuation of economy. The impact of different forms of interna- tional capital flow on the economic growth is different. The effect of the aggregate or different component of international capital flow to the economic will change with the change of exchange rate system. Therefore, we should control not only the aggregate of international capital flow but also the different forms of it.