基于TPNT含风电场发输电组合系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Wind Farm Integrated Composite Power System Using TPNT

为克服含风电场可靠性评估中需已知风速分布函数的缺点,提出了一种基于三阶多项式正态变换(TPNT)的非序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法评估含风电场发输电系统的可靠性。在已知风速历史数据或风速分布函数的情况下,通过TPNT构建风速随机变量与标准正态分布变量的关系,进而利用标准正态分布函数的性质产生具有任意数量的具有指定相关性的风速样本,并应用于风电场接入的发输电系统可靠性计算中。通过算例分析验证了TPNT应用于发输电系统可靠性计算中的适用性。在此基础上,从风速相关性、额定容量、风资源强度和风电场位置四个角度分析了风电场接入对可靠性的影响。为含风电场发输电系统可靠性的评估提供了新思路。

To overcome the drawbacks that wind speed distribution is assumed in the reliability evaluation of wind farm integrated power system,this paper proposed a third-order polynomial normal transformation（TPNT）based nonsequential Monte Carlo simulation method to evaluate the reliability of generation and transmission system incorporating wind farm.When historical data or distribution functions of wind speed were given,the relationship between wind speed distribution and standard normal distribution can be established with the TPNT.Then the correlated wind speed samples,which are employed in the process of reliability evaluation,can be produced through TPNT and the correlated normally distributed samples.The applicability of the proposed method was verified by the case studies.On that basis,the impacts of wind farm on composite power system reliability were analyzed from four aspects,including wind speed correlation,rated capacity of wind farms,locations of wind farms and wind source intensity.The proposed algorithm provides a novel idea for reliability of composite power system with wind farm.