1951—2012年河南省气候变化对冬小麦和玉米产量的影响

Influence of Climate Change on the Production of Winter Wheat and Corn in Henan Province from 1951 to 2012

在分析河南省1951—2012年历史气候变化背景下,对冬小麦和玉米不同生长时期对应的气候要素变化对其产量的影响进行定量研究。利用国家气象局网站提供的历史气象数据,基于Matlab和Surfer 8.0绘制年平均气温和降水量的小波系数实部等值线图。通过用二次函数拟合趋势产量,将冬小麦和玉米的历年气象产量分离出来。之后利用SPSS进行逐步回归分析,建立以气候产量为因变量,不同生长时期的气候要素为自变量的回归模型。结果表明：（1）河南省年降水量在其变化过程中存在多时间尺度特征,小波波幅中心在36~58年、15~35年以及8~14年这3类时间尺度上正负交替出现,存在周期性的变化规律。在18年尺度上,年均气温到2012年处于升高状态。（2）冬小麦全生育期内,在其他自变量不变的情况下,越冬期降水量每增加1 mm,气象产量将减少0.221万t;越冬期平均温度每增加1℃,气象产量将减少13.277万t;在冬小麦生长期第二阶段中,降水量每增加1 mm,气象产量将减少0.149万t。（3）在玉米全生育期内,保持其他自变量不变的前提下,营养生长期内降水量每增加1 mm,气象产量将减少0.003万t;营养生长期平均温度每增加1℃,气象产量将减少6.389万t;玉米生殖生长期间,降水量每增加1 mm,气象产量将减少0.159万t。从总体上来看,温度和降水变化对气象产量的影响皆为负面影响,并且温度变化对粮食产量的影响比降水变化产生的影响显著得多。通过对2个回归模型进行对比发现冬小麦比玉米具有更强的气候变化敏感性。

Under the background of the historical climate change of Henan Province from 1951 to 2012, theauthor carried out quantitative research on the impact of climatic factors change on the productivity of winter wheat and corn corresponding to their different growth periods. Using the historical meteorological dataprovided by the national weather service site, the author drew the contour map of average temperature andprecipitation with wavelet coefficients based on Matlab and Surfer 8.0. By quadratic function fitting trend yield,the author isolated the historical meteorological yield of winter wheat and corn. After stepwise regressionanalysis by SPSS, the author built a regression model which contained climate yield as the dependent variable,climate factors of different growth periods as independent variables. The results showed that：（1） in the changeprocess of annual precipitation in Henan Province, there were multiple time scale features, the small wavecenter in 36-58 years, 15-35 years and 8-14 years appeared alternately plus or minus, showing a periodicchange rule; on 18 years scale, the average annual temperature stayed in an rising trend till 2012;（2） for winterwheat, under the condition that other independent variables remained the same, the precipitation increase1 mm during its overwintering period, the meteorological yield would reduce 2.21 thousand tons; the averagetemperature of overwintering stage increase 1℃, the meteorological yield would reduce 132.77 thousand tons;the precipitation increase 1 mm during the second growth stage, meteorological yield woud reduce 1.49 thousand tons;（3） for corn, under the condition that other independent variables remained the same, theprecipitation increase 1 mm during its vegetative growth period, meteorological yield would reduce 0.03 thousand tons, the average temperature of the vegetative stage increase 1℃, the meteorological yield wouldreduce 63.89 thousand tons; the precipitation increased 1 mm during its reproductive stage, meteorologicalyield would reduce 1.59 thousand tons. As a whole, the influences of both temperature and precipitationchanges on meteorological yield were negative. And the influence of temperature change on food productionwas more significant than that of precipitation change. Comparing the two regression models, the author foundthat the winter wheat had higher sensitivity to climate change than corn.