1980—2009年合肥地区地表干湿变化及作物灾损评估研究

Study on Dry-wet Condition and Disaster Loss Evaluation of Crop in Hefei During 1980-2009

利用基于作物潜在蒸散建立的相对湿润度指数和作物灾损率指标,分析1980—2009年合肥地区6个气象台站的常规观测资料和作物产量数据,研究合肥地区地表干湿状况变化和典型作物受旱的灾损情况,通过分析作物灾损率以及其与相对湿润度指数的关系,建立合肥地区两种典型作物(小麦和水稻)关于相对湿润度指数的旱灾风险等级标准。结果表明:30年间合肥地区相对湿润度指数均属正常偏湿状态,南部地区较北部偏湿,同时地表湿润状况存在0.048/10年的变干趋势。冬小麦关于相对湿润度指数累计值的不同干旱等级(轻、中、重旱)指数界限值为-2.0983和-3.4281,水稻为-0.9371和-2.5660。合肥地区水稻对土壤水分胁迫的耐受力较冬小麦弱,因受旱导致减产的风险较大。

Based on the relative humidity index of agricultural drought and crop damage data, this paperanalyzed the conventional observation data and crop yield data of six meteorological stations in Hefei from1980 to 2009 and disclosed the temporal and spatial variation of drought in Hefei and the yield damage causedby drought. This paper also analyzed the relationship between the crop damage rate and the relative humidityindex, and set up the criteria of drought risk related to the relative humidity index for the two typical crops：wheat and rice. The results showed that the relative humidity index of Hefei was normal or humid. It was morehumid in the south than in the north, meanwhile, the surface humid index decreased by 0.048 per decade. Thethreshold value of different drought grades（mild, moderate and heavy drought） on the base of relative humidityindex was from-2.0983 to-3.4281 for wheat, and from-0.9371 to-2.5660 for rice. In general, the wheat hadmore tolerance to drought than rice, so the rice had higher risk in drought.