基于自动气象站的乡镇级灾害风险区划初探——以海原县干旱灾害风险区划为例

Primary Research on Township-level Disaster Risk Zoning Based on the Automatic Weather Station:A Case Study of Drought Disaster Risk Zoning in Haiyuan County of Ningxia

以宁夏海原县干旱灾害风险区划为例,利用12个区域站和1个大监站气象观测资料,综合考虑孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体和抗灾能力,采用AHP层次分析法赋权重,并将信息栅格化后使用Arc GIS进行重采样、插值及栅格计算,实现250 m格网分辨率的海原县干旱灾害风险区划。结果表明:海城、关桥和甘城3镇为干旱灾害风险高风险区,而保灌率较高的七营、郑旗、李旺和降水量大的关庄为干旱灾害的低发区。此研究为海原县城的迁移提供了佐证,也为海原县未来农业产业结构调整和远景规划提供了技术支撑。

To study the drought risk zoning of the Haiyuan County in Ningxia, the authors first usedmeteorological observation data from 12 regional stations and one large monitoring station, and took intoconsideration of the disaster inducing environment, hazard factor, bearing body and anti-disaster ability, andthen adopted AHP analysis method to assign weight, and Arc GIS to resample, interpolate and grid compute thedata after they were rasterized. Finally, the Haiyuan County drought disaster risk zoning based on the 250 mgrid resolution was obtained. The results showed that three towns, including Haicheng, Guanqiao andGancheng, were the highest incidence areas of drought disaster risk, while Qiying, Zhengqi and Liwang whichhad higher probability of irrigation and Guanzhuang which had more annual rainfall were the lowest incidenceareas of the drought disaster. This study provided more evidence for the migration of Haiyuan County, and alsoprovided the technical support for the future agricultural structure adjustment and long-term planning.