西安地铁2号线南段运营初期客流预测

Forecasting Passenger Flow on Southern Extension of Xi'an Metro Line 2 in Preliminary Operation Stage

以西安地铁2号线南延段开通日期为预测年限,通过设计、实施客流调查及AFC(自动售检票)系统数据分析,深入探讨2号线南段现状客流出行特征及既有线上的客流规律,运用在既有客流规律基础上的趋势推演法,通过标定车站客流与土地利用、到离站交通距离与地铁车站选择、合理轨道乘距等数学模型,从客运量与断面客流量两方面完成其开通初期的客流预测,为2号线南段开通的运输计划编制提供依据,为后期新线开通的客流预测积累经验。

In this paper,the forecast period is regarded as the operation date of southern extension of Xi＇an Metro Line 2. Based on the design and implementation of passenger flow investigation as well as the analysis of AFC data,we deeply analyzed the trip characteristic of the present passenger flow on southern extension and the law of passenger flow on existing lines. The author adopted trends deduction method on the basis of existing passenger flow rules by the mathematical model calibration of metro station passenger flow and land use,the transportation distance of arriving at and departing from stations,the subway station selection and the reasonable travel distance. The passenger flow forecast is completed from two aspects of passenger traffic and the volume of section passenger flow. The study provided a basis for making transportation plans in early operation stage of southern extension,and it is helpful to accumulate experience of passenger flow prediction for future new lines.