城市供水系统弹性应对策略与仿真分析

Coping strategies and simulation analysis on municipal water supply system resilience

针对城市供水系统受外界威胁导致供应能力波动的问题,建立了以优化供水系统弹性为目标的两阶段应对策略模型.第一阶段为马尔可夫决策过程水库调度模型,求解在满足期望弹性约束下以总成本最小化为目标的优化调度策略;当供应缺口超出水库调度能力时,针对供水系统在动态情景下的不确定性,建立了以供水网络弹性损失最小为目标的系统动力学第二阶段模型,通过仿真实验得到了多渠道优化策略.最后,以上海市咸潮入侵事件验证了该方法的有效性和实用性.

In order to deal with the capacity fluctuation problem of water supply system caused by external threatens, a two-stage strategy model is proposed to optimize system resilience. The first stage is a Markov decision process model for reservoir scheduling, the objective of which is to derive the optimal scheduling strategy with minimal scheduling cost under the constraint of resilience target. When the shortage of water supply exceeds the capacity of reservoir scheduling, the second stage establishes a system dynamic model in order to minimize the satisfaction loss during the dynamic and uncertain disruption scenarios, and the multi-sourcing contingency are derived through the simulation results. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by a case study of Shanghai water supply system under salt tide.