装备修理目标价格测算的灰色组合预测模型

Grey Forecast Combination Model for Estimating Target Price of Equipment Repair

针对装备修理目标价格测算中的小样本和振荡特性,以灰色预测模型及各种相关改进模型为单项预测模型,综合考虑直接应用灰色关联度难以保证组合预测的无偏性和灰色关联度计算的准确性,以及基于灰色绝对关联度的最优组合预测模型在单项预测模型数量多于样本数量时无法求解和绝对关联度信息包含不足的问题,建立了基于灰色关联度排序的装备修理目标价格测算的组合预测模型。通过实例分析证明了该方法的可行性和有效性。

Equipment repair price estimation usually has small samples with turbulence characteristics.In the combination model, individual models come from various grey forecast model, and the combination method is based on grey relational analy-sis.Because the unbiasedness of forecast and the accuracy of grey correlation degree are difficult to meet in the existing grey com-bination model, and the optimal forecast combination model based on grey absolute correlation degree cannot solve, and the infor-mation conceived in grey absolute correlation degree is insufficient, a forecast combination model based on rank of grey correlation degree was proposed.Finally an example was given to verify the availability of this method.