含有多元线性回归的事故路段通行能力分析

An Analysis of Traffic Capacity of Accident Zones with Multiple Linear Regression

为研究交通事故对道路通行能力的影响,通过分时统计、当量折算,计算出事故路段实际通行能力的时间变化曲线;比较两次事故中排队队长相同时的通行能力,分析不同车道被占用的影响差异;建立车辆排队长度的计算模型,并利用多元线性回归方法求出排队长度和实际通行能力、事故持续时间、上游车流量间的关系;给出了估算排队长度到达上游路口所需时间的公式。

To study the impact of traffic accidents on the road capacity, the paper calculates the time curve of the actual capacity of the road accident through sharing statistics and equivalent conversion. It also compares the traffic capacity of two accidents with the same queue length and analyzes the impact differences when dif-ferent lanes are occupied. Calculation model of vehicle queue length is established and with multiple linear regression, the relationships are determined between the queue length and the actual capacity, the duration of the accident, and the upstream traffic. A formula is given to estimate the time required for the queue length to the upstream intersection.