美联储货币政策变化及其溢出效应

Changes in the Fed's Monetary Policy and Its Spillover Effects

在国际金融危机时期,美联储实施过三轮量化宽松的货币政策,促其经济从衰退逐渐走向复苏,但美联储资产负债表却由8000亿美元上升到4.48万亿美元。这种状况难以继续下去,必然缩减资产负债表和改变超低利率政策,逐渐回归金融常态化。从2014年1月起美联储开始调整货币政策,货币政策转向分三步走:结朿资产购买计划、释放加息预期、步入加息周期。美国作为世界经济和金融强国,其货币政策的变化,既对美国自身带来多重影响,也对包括中国在内的新兴经济体和发展经济体产生溢出效应,给全球金融市场带来冲击。中国等新兴市场国家应未雨绸缪,做好美联储结束超低利率带来的负面溢出效应的应对准备。

In times of financial crisis,the Fed's three rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy had promoted American economic recovery gradually,but at the same time,the Fed's balance sheet had risen from $ 800 billion to $ 4.48 trillion.It is difficult to continue and the balance sheet must be shrunk and the ultra-low interest rate policy must be changed and back to the financial normalization.From January 2014,the Federal Reserve started to adjust its monetary policy and there are three steps in this shift:Stop the asset purchase program;release the rate-increase expectations;be into the rate-increase cycle.As the world's economic and financial power,the US's change or shift of its monetary policy will bring multiple effects to itself and also has spillover effects to the emerging and developing economies,including China,and shock to the global financial markets.China and other emerging economies should get ahead against the negative spillover effects from the end of the low interest rates era.