新疆布鲁氏菌病空间聚集性分析

Spatial clustering analysis of brucellosis in Xinjiang,China

目的以2009-2010年新疆布鲁氏菌病疫情数据为例,探索和分析新疆布鲁氏菌病的空间聚集性特征,为新疆布鲁氏菌病的防控提供依据。方法采用描述性流行病学对新疆布鲁氏菌病的时间与人群分布进行统计分析。利用四分位数分级方法,绘制新疆布鲁氏菌病发病率空间分布地图,计算全局Moran’s I指数,进行空间聚集性分析。结果新疆布鲁氏菌病发病存在明显的季节差异(多发于5-9月),男性多于女性(男女性别比2.96∶1),职业发病以农、牧民为主(74%),发病人群集中在40~60岁。2010年较2009年,新疆布鲁氏菌病发病范围有明显扩散趋势。2009-2010年新疆布鲁氏菌病发病率的全局Moran’s I指数为0.116 4(P=0.017),表明新疆布病发病率水平存在空间聚集性。发病热点区域集中分布在塔城地区与阿勒泰地区,发病冷点区域集中在喀什地区。结论新疆各县(区)布病的发病率水平存在明显的空间聚集性,应加强对高危地区的防控。

We used the Brucella data in Xinjiang between year 2009 to 2010 to explore and analyze the spatial clustering fea tures of brucellosis in Xinjiang, and provided the basis for prevention and control on brucellosis in Xinjiang, China. The time and population distribution of brucellosis in Xinjiang was analyzed for statistical analysis with descriptive epidemiology. Mean- while, we also used quartile classification methods to map the incidence of brucellosis in Xinjiang spatial distribution, and calcu- lated the Global Moran^s I index on the spatial clustering analysis. Results showed that brucellosis in Xinjiang had obvious sea- sonal differences （peaked in May- September）, more cases for male than that for female （gender ratio--2.96 ： 1）, and the total incidence of 74~ were farmer and herdsman, mainly concentrated at the age of 40 to 60 years old. Compared with the onset range of brucellosis in 2009, there were clear tendency to spread in 2010. The Global Moran＇s I index was 0. 116 4 （P~ 0. 017）, showing the spatial clustering on the incidence of brucellosis in Xinjiang. The incidence of hot spots concentrated in Tacheng and Altay, and the incidence of cold spots concentrated in Kashi. The incidence level brucellosis has significant spatial aggregation in the area of Xinjiang, which should he strengthened the prevention and control of high-risk areas.